Thursday, February 2, 2017

$BCE Q4 F2016: "dividend since the end of 2008 – a total increase of 97%"

BCE released their Q4 F2016 earnings today and rewarded shareholders with a +$0.14, +5.128% dividend increase from $2.73 to $2.87.
BCE common share dividend increasedToday's dividend announcement is BCE's 13th increase to its annual common share dividend since Q4 2008, representing a 97% increase. The BCE annualized common share dividend will increase 5.1%, or 14 cents per share, from $2.73 to $2.87 effective with BCE's Q1 2017 dividend payable on April 15, 2017 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 15, 2017. This is BCE's 9th consecutive year of 5% or better dividend growth, while maintaining the dividend payout ratio(3) within the target policy range of 65% to 75% of free cash flow. The higher dividend for 2017 is fully supported by projected growth in free cash flow.
http://www.bce.ca/news-and-media/releases/show/BCE-reports-2016-Q4-and-full-year-results-announces-2017-financial-targets-Common-share-dividend-increased-5-1-to-2-87-per-year-1?page=1&month=&year=
Wow, since Q4 2008 the dividend increased by 97%! In hindsight, BCE continues to be a dividend machine. I decided to pull some numbers to see what this means for long term dividend investors.

The Q4 2008 dividend was declared on December 12, 2008 payable January 15, 2009 at $0.365/share, annualized $1.46. Let's take the closing price on the declaration date: $21.23. This means BCE offered a yield of 6.877%.

Taking the Q1 2017 dividend of $0.7175/share annualized to $2.87. We're looking at a yield to cost of 13.518%. That's a 13.518% cash-in-hand return per year without having to trade and without having to worry about price fluctuations.

Looking at it in another way; I took all the dividend payments since Q4 2008 until Q1 2017. One share of BCE at $21.23 was yielding 6.8771% and paid out $0.365 in Q4 2008. By the upcoming Q1 2017 that one share would yield 13.5186%, an increase, as BCE stated of 96.5741%.

Taking it even further, the chart at end of my post below shows how one share would have returned $18.8425 in cash, an 88.75% cash-in-hand return on the original principle of $21.23. This doesn't include the capital appreciation. Adding share price gains today's close was $57.44, a +$36.21 or 170.5605% share appreciation. Putting dividend and share appreciation together we hit 259.3146% returns. Not bad at all.

There are many other dividend stocks out there that have provided lucrative and passive returns. The risk is always there of share price declines due to a negative shift in the business and dividends are not guaranteed. With hindsight we can say BCE so far has been a successful dividend play.

Total Dividend $18.84250
Share Price $21.23000
Cash Return 88.75%

Dividend + Share Appreciation = $55.0525
Total Return = 259.3146%

There

Declaration Date Record Date Payment Date Dividend Annual Dividend Share Price Yield to Cost
2008-12-12 2008-12-23 2009-01-15 $0.36500 $1.46000 $21.23 6.8771%
2009-02-10 2009-03-16 2009-04-15 $0.38500 $1.54000 $21.23 7.2539%
2009-05-06 2009-06-15 2009-07-15 $0.38500 $1.54000 $21.23 7.2539%
2009-08-05 2009-09-15 2009-10-15 $0.40500 $1.62000 $21.23 7.6307%
2009-11-11 2009-12-15 2010-01-15 $0.40500 $1.62000 $21.23 7.6307%
2010-02-03 2010-03-15 2010-04-15 $0.43500 $1.74000 $21.23 8.1959%
2010-05-05 2010-06-15 2010-07-15 $0.43500 $1.74000 $21.23 8.1959%
2010-08-04 2010-09-15 2010-10-15 $0.45750 $1.83000 $21.23 8.6199%
2010-12-09 2010-12-15 2011-01-15 $0.45750 $1.83000 $21.23 8.6199%
2011-02-09 2011-03-15 2011-04-15 $0.49250 $1.97000 $21.23 9.2793%
2011-05-11 2011-06-15 2011-07-15 $0.51750 $2.07000 $21.23 9.7504%
2011-08-03 2011-09-15 2011-10-15 $0.51750 $2.07000 $21.23 9.7504%
2011-11-02 2011-12-15 2012-01-15 $0.51750 $2.07000 $21.23 9.7504%
2012-02-08 2012-03-15 2012-04-15 $0.54250 $2.17000 $21.23 10.2214%
2012-05-03 2012-06-15 2012-07-15 $0.54250 $2.17000 $21.23 10.2214%
2012-08-07 2012-09-14 2012-10-15 $0.56750 $2.27000 $21.23 10.6924%
2012-10-31 2012-12-14 2013-01-15 $0.56750 $2.27000 $21.23 10.6924%
2013-02-06 2013-03-15 2013-04-15 $0.58250 $2.33000 $21.23 10.9750%
2013-05-08 2013-06-14 2013-07-15 $0.58250 $2.33000 $21.23 10.9750%
2013-08-07 2013-09-16 2013-10-15 $0.58250 $2.33000 $21.23 10.9750%
2013-11-06 2013-12-16 2014-01-15 $0.58250 $2.33000 $21.23 10.9750%
2014-02-05 2014-03-14 2014-04-15 $0.61750 $2.47000 $21.23 11.6345%
2014-05-05 2014-06-16 2014-07-15 $0.61750 $2.47000 $21.23 11.6345%
2014-08-06 2014-09-15 2014-10-15 $0.61750 $2.47000 $21.23 11.6345%
2014-11-05 2014-12-15 2015-01-15 $0.61750 $2.47000 $21.23 11.6345%
2015-02-04 2015-03-16 2015-04-15 $0.65000 $2.60000 $21.23 12.2468%
2015-04-29 2015-06-15 2015-07-15 $0.65000 $2.60000 $21.23 12.2468%
2015-08-05 2015-09-15 2015-10-15 $0.65000 $2.60000 $21.23 12.2468%
2015-11-04 2015-12-15 2016-01-15 $0.65000 $2.60000 $21.23 12.2468%
2016-02-03 2016-03-15 2016-04-15 $0.68250 $2.73000 $21.23 12.8592%
2016-04-27 2016-06-15 2016-07-15 $0.68250 $2.73000 $21.23 12.8592%
2016-08-03 2016-09-15 2016-10-15 $0.68250 $2.73000 $21.23 12.8592%
2016-11-02 2016-12-15 2017-01-15 $0.68250 $2.73000 $21.23 12.8592%
2017-02-01 2017-03-15 2017-04-15 $0.71750 $2.87000 $21.23 13.5186%


Sunday, January 1, 2017

The 50K Report - 2016 Ends. (Q4 FY2016)

Q4 FY2016 (October, November, and December)
Next update: End of Q1FY2017 (January, February, and March)

Investment Goals:
  1. Continue adding to higher quality large cap equities.
  2. Continue slimming down number of holdings within portfolio.
  3. Continue seeking opportunities to broaden portfolio by sector.
  4. Focus on stocks that have a DRIP plan.
  5. Continue concentrating existing holdings to achieve $1,000 dividend mark (1K Club)
  6. $50,000 passive income target. (eg. $1,000,000 at 5% will yield $50,000 per year.)


Developments:
- Calculation of Total Book Value Required: $50,000 / % yield = Book Value (eg. 4.31% = $1,160,092.81)
- Current Target Book Value @ 4.6878%: $1,083,805.9564
- Further stratification of income Goal Posts.
- Ontario Minimum Wage Increase reflected: $11.40.
- Achieved new updated Minimum Wage Goal Post: $17,748
- Record Distribution income $18,891.95
- Reorganised data to breakdown by account type: Non-Registered, RRSP, TFSA, and DPSP (Employer).
- Included Margin Debt. Margin debt was used sporadically over the course of the year to practice for use as a potential long term tool. The intention is to use this in lieu of DRIP; to take advantage of Tax Deduction; and leverage my growing portfolio with manageable debt.
- Goal to become more fluid and not be too attached to my current yield to cost.
- Markets have risen significantly post-November US Election and the US Fed raising their interest rates.
- Got this report out on time.

Distribution Changes:

- Distribution income increased from Q3FY2016's $15,334.55
to $18,891.95. (+$3,557.40 or +23.1985%)
- Doubled BCE Inc adding it to the 1K Club; added more BCE Inc Preferred Shares Series H; added 96 more shares of Scotia Bank to round out position; added more Enbridge Preferred Share Series R, Inter Pipeline Ltd, Telus Corp, Diversified Royalty Corp, iShares TSX Preferred Shares ETF, and TransCanada Corp.
- Distribution increase for Inter Pipeline Ltd, Telus Corp, Allied Properties REIT, and Interrent REIT
- Added CI Financial Corp, Bank of Montreal, Toronto Dominion Bank, and Bristol Myers Squibb Co (BMY).
- BMY was a Put Assignment.
- Included an existing position, StorageVault Canada Inc, but it has an insignificant yield of 1.0862%
- Reduced Manulife Financial.
- Removed Bank of America and Imvescor Restaurant Group Inc.
- Stratification of Goal Posts to emulate increased hours of work.

Progress for
Q4 FY2016. (Values represent potential full year cash flow):
Book Value
$409,504.09
Yearly Distribution
$18,891.95
Yield Total
4.61%
Margin Debt
-$38,571.58
Margin Interest
3.45%

Goal Posts:
- Increased stratification to 6 Goal Posts.

- First 3 Goals are related to:
  • Minimum Wage of $11.40
  • Hours of work per week: 30, 37.5, and 40.
  • 37.5 hours reflects my current weekly work hours.
- Final 3 Goals are check points for achieving the mid-30 and 40 thousand dollar range.
Dividend Goal
% Completion
Remaining
$50,000
37.89%
$31,108.05
$45,000
41.98%
$26,108.05
$35,000
53.98%
$16,108.05
$23,712
79.67%
$4,820.05
$22,230
84.98%
$3,338.05
$17,784
106.23%
-$1,107.95


Holdings (Monthly Change):
October
Book Value: $318,837.7550
Yearly Dividend: $15,110.4405
Yield Total: 4.7392%

November
Book Value: $349,770.4735
Yearly Dividend: $16,655.5133
Yield Total: 4.7618%

December
Book Value: $409,504.0898
Yearly Dividend: $18,891.9468
Yield Total: 4.6133%

Upcoming:
  • Adding new metrics:
    • I've added to my individual stock investment spreadsheets the total distributions gained over time.
    • Whilst writing up this 50K report thought of how and which metrics would be relevant to provide a snapshot of distribution returns in comparison to the investment.
    • Working on little kinks in the presentation of information:
      • If I sold a portion at a loss the % return from distributions will become larger starting at that period.
      • How to make the spreadsheet more simple to avoid manual manipulation of invidual cells.
  • Three metrics for % Returns:
    • % Returned (Overall):
      • Formula: Total Dividends divided by Currently Book Value.
      • Purpose: Takes absolute returns of both historical and latest Book Value. This shows how much the distributions cover existing Book Value.
      • Example (BCE): 17.6291%
    • % Returned (Average Yearly Book Value):
      • Formula: Total Dividends divided by Yearly Average Book Value.
      • Purpose: Smooths out the Overall distribution return by looking at the Average Book Value per Year. This shows how much the distributions cover the Book Value for the entire year.
      • Example (BCE): 32.3046%
    • % Returned (Yearly):
      • Formula: Yearly Dividends divided by Yearly Average Book Value.
      • Purpose: Purely looks at the year's returns. This is a reflection of the stock's average annual yield.
      • Example (BCE): 7.0183%

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

The 50K Report - Quick Update: Achieved Dividend Goal #1 ($17,784)

Dividend Goal #1 is derived by the Ontario Minimum Wage ($11.40/hr) x Minimum Full Time Hours (30) x 52 Weeks = $17,784.
An exciting milestone has been reached as my Bristol Meyers Squibb BMY Puts were assigned on Friday, December 16 and today I purchased some Toronto Dominion Bank (TD). Together these two stocks helped me achieve a yearly dividend (currency considered at par value) of $18,039.86794. This has broken through Dividend Goal #1 of receiving $17,784 by $255.86794.
Goal #2 is an increase of working hours to 37.5 taking the target to $22,230. Another $4,446-$255.8679= $4,190.13 to go.
However, this may be a temporary situation as retention of these two positions will be fluid. BMY was assigned last Friday and is currently underwater. I will hold on until profitability has been achieved and will hold until another opportunity is presented for a US stock. Though BMY seems to be a good hold as it helps round out my portfolio on the bio/pharma side and a slight +2.6315% +$0.01 dividend increase is coming up.
TD is an effort to utilize Covered Call writing. However, I am buying now close to the 52 week high, which was reached on today's intraday price $67.21. I sold it back in 2014 at $51.80. Totally should have held on and the dividend has increased since then.
US markets are blowing through all time highs and reaching DOW 20K... Nervous. TSX has been doing quite well.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

The 50K Report - Market Continues Upward Trend Q3FY2016

The 50K Report – Market Continues Upward Trend (Q3 FY2016)

Q3 FY2016 (July, August, and September)

- $50,000 passive income target. (eg. $1,000,000 at 5% will yield $50,000 per year.)

- Calculation of Total Book Value Required: $50,000 / % yield = Book Value (eg. 4.31% = $1,160,092.81)
- Current Target Book Value @ 4.6878%: $1,066,598.40
- Next major update: End of Q4FY2016 (October, November, and December).

Investment Goals:
  1. Continue adding to higher quality large cap equities.
  2. Continue slimming down number of holdings within portfolio.
  3. Continue seeking opportunities to broaden portfolio by sector.
  4. Focus on stocks that have a DRIP plan.
  5. Continue concentrating existing holdings to achieve $1,000 dividend mark (1K Club)

Distribution Changes:

- Distribution income decreased from Q2FY2016's $16,792.77
to $15,334.55. (-$1,458.22 or -8.6836%)
- Decrease mainly due removing Canadian Western Bank (CWB); doubled Canadian Apartment REIT adding it to 1K Club; added 100 more shares of Enbridge Income Fund to bring it into the 1K Club; Enbridge Preferred Share Series R added 15 shares via DRIP bringing it into the 1K Club; reduced Sunlife Financial SLF by 100 shares; and removed Wells Fargo WFC.
- Achievement of reaching the Minimum Wage Goal of $17,550 is now at 87.37% with $2,215.45 outstanding.

Progress for
Q3 FY2016. (Values represent potential full year cash flow.):
Book Value
$327,113.90
Yearly Distribution
$15,334.55
Yield Total
4.68%

- 3 goal posts: $17,550 (Approximate Minimum Wage), $25,000 (Half-way), and $50,000.
Dividend Goal
% Completion
Remaining
$50,000
30.69%
$34,665.45
$25,000
61.33%
$9,665.45
$17,550
87.37%
$2,215.45

Holdings:
- Monthly Change:
July
Book Value: $314,151.397115
Yearly Dividend: $14,801.76496
Yield Total: 4.711666%

August
Book Value: $320,146.073931
Yearly Dividend: $15,013.72552
Yield Total: 4.689648%

September
Book Value: $327,113.900313
Yearly Dividend: $15,345.3688
Yield Total: 4.691139%

Updates:
- Added: Small position in Imvescor Restaurant Group (IRG)
- Increased: CAR.UN and ENF
- Decreased: SLF
- Removed: CWB
Upcoming:
- Updating the goalposts and adjustments on Minimum Wage and hours worked.



The 50K Report - Q2FY2016

Q2 FY2016 (April, May, and June)

- $50,000 passive income target. (eg. $1,000,000 at 5% will yield $50,000 per year.)

- Calculation of Total Book Value Required: $50,000 / % yield = Book Value (eg. 4.31% = $1,160,092.81)
- Current Target Book Value @ 4.557%: $1,097,120.388
- Next major update: End of Q3FY2016 (July, August, and September).

Investment Goals:
  1. Continue adding to higher quality large cap equities.
  2. Continue slimming down number of holdings within portfolio.
  3. Continue seeking opportunities to broaden portfolio by sector.
  4. Focus on stocks that have a DRIP plan.
  5. Continue concentrating existing holdings to achieve $1,000 dividend mark (1K Club)

Distribution Changes:

- Achieved highest distribution amount of portfolio.
- Distribution income increased from Q2FY2016's $14
,221.3584 to Q2FY2016's $16,792.77. (+$2571.4116 or +18.0813%)
- Yield remains roughly the same as Q2.
- Increase is mainly due to doubling holding of Canadian Western Bank (CWB) to average down in anticipation of temporarily higher oil prices; Averaging down Manulife; adding more IPL to join 1K Club; and addition of Enbridge Income Fund (ENF).
- Removed FairFax Financial Preferred Shares Series I (FFH.PR.I), InnVest REIT (INN.UN), and TMX Group (X).
- INN.UN buyout was announced in May. Missed buyout opportunity.
- Dividend Cut and frequency change from Monthly to Quarterly payout for GoldCorp (G).
- Achievement of reaching the Minimum Wage Goal is now at 95.69% with $757.23 outstanding.

Progress for
Q2 FY2016. (Values represent potential full year cash flow.):
Book Value
$368,473.76
Yearly Distribution
$16,792.77
Yield Total
4.56%

- 3 goal posts: $17,550 (Approximate Minimum Wage), $25,000 (Half-way), and $50,000.
Dividend Goal
% Completion
Remaining
$50,000
33.59%
$33,207.23
$25,000
67.17%
$8,207.23
$17,550
95.69%
$757.23

Holdings:
- Monthly Change:
April
Book Value: $336,133.296205
Yearly Dividend: $14,782.138120
Yield Total: 4.397701%

May
Book Value: $321,571.687479
Yearly Dividend: $14,780.570160
Yield Total: 4.596353%

June
Book Value: $368,473.758979
Yearly Dividend: $16,792.7694
Yield Total: 4.557385%

Updates:
- Added: ENF
- Increased: CWB, MFC, IPL
- Dividend Increased: T, WFC
- Removed: FFH.PR.I, INN.UN, X
Upcoming:
- Still working on getting this 50K report in a more timely manner.
- Continue working on new report called the 1K Club to show holdings that have crossed over the $1,000 dividend mark.


Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Can't Let It Get To Your Head

The markets have been on fire since Trump won the US Presidential election back around mid November.
The US Fed has also been leaning towards a rate hike. In spite of this US markets have soared, reaching new highs. Canadian TSX has followed. The financial sector, no surprise, has made the gains with utilities and telecoms getting sold.
Stories of the Dotcom bubble come to mind where there were cases of people quitting their jobs because they were making so much money in the markets.
With rising portfolios comes the thought that we have the magic touch, but we need to realize almost everybody else is doing well. It's generally the market making us winners not entirely our skill. The strategy we employ in this environment might not work and could reverse if the market sentiment changes.
Those Dotcom bubble trader examples were wiped out and out of a job when the bubble burst. It was an illusion in a different type of market.
We need to keep our heads and not let our success get to our heads. Otherwise we take unnecessary risks that come back to haunt us later.