Sunday, January 19, 2020

Could this be the end of Bombardier's preferred shares? $BBD.B

I tried looking at the Bombardier Preferred Shares series 2, 3, and 4. The preliminary Q4/Full Year news release last week was vague as to what "solving" their capital structure actually means, but I am theorizing the preferred shares may be targeted. If they are, then the Series 4 Preferred Shares BBD.PR.C would be an easy choice for them.
The final step in our turnaround is to de-lever and solve our capital structure.
I own Series 2 (DRIP since Dec 2013), but back then never picked the Series 4 because, while Bombardier can redeem at Par, Series 4 has an additional option of forced conversion into Class B Common Shares. Separately, they can also do an offering of a new and undetermined series of Preferred Share into which Series 4 investors have the option of converting.
Bombardier Inc. may, on not less than 30, nor more than 60 days' notice, and subject to stock exchange approvals, convert all or any of the Series 4 preferred shares into Class B shares.
The Corporation may subsequent to the date hereof, at its option, create one or more further series of Preferred Shares of the Corporation, into which the holders of Series 4 Preferred Shares could have the right, but not the obligation, to convert their shares on a share-for-share basis,

What is the dividend difference between the three Preferred Share Series?
Series 2 (BBD.PR.B): Variable, Monthly, Reference Rate: Prime Rate
Series 3 (BBD.PR.D): Variable (5 year), Quarterly, Reference Rate: GoC Bond Yield
Series 4 (BBD.PR.C): Fixed, Quarterly, Reference Rate: Par Cost Yield 6.25% (Annual $1.5625)

Earlier tonight I thought this might actually make money with an arbitrage between Series 4's Par vs Market Value. However, if my revised calculations are correct, at Friday's closing prices (Series 4: $16.21, Class B: $1.12) it actually may be no good. The conversion formula uses Par $25 (plus accrued/unpaid dividends) divided by the conversion Class B share price. BBD.B is at $1.12 and the conversion will assign the greater value of $2 per Class B share. This means an automatic $0.88 loss on the shares and with the number of shares, the loss is greater than the Par vs Market arbitrage.
greater of $2.00 and 95% of the weighted average trading price of the Class B
Break even in the scenario would be if BBD.B = ~$1.35. If the price rises from there and the conversion happens then it becomes profitable.

Forcing conversion of the 9.4MM Series 4 into 117.5MM Class B ($25/$2=12.5 BBD.B *9.4MM Series 4) will save $14,687,500 of dividend payments annually and avoid paying out $235MM cash for redemption. Yes, that's a potential ouch for holders of BBD.B as 117.5MM shares would be issued as a result of this, but maybe net it will be balanced by the elimination of Series 4. Plus, the investor will get ONE vote per share (yay...). Current outstanding number of BBD.B: 2,066,356,118 = 5.68% dilution.

For a chuckle here's an example formula from their site: back in 2002 when Series 4 was issued the common was greater than $10.
example: redemption price $26.00; weighted average trading price of Class B shares $11.45, 95% of $11.45 is $10.8775, which is greater than $2.00; thus, dividing $26.00 by $10.8775, one would obtain 2.39026 shares at the conversion date.
What throws everything off even more is if Bombardier throws a curve ball and some general negative scenarios come into play:
Interesting though, of the three Preferred Share series, Series 4 actually held up the best dropping less. Perhaps I am missing something and/or my calculations is incorrect. The break even $1.35 is pretty close, so a bounce up in the common shares makes the potential trade profitable.



Series 2 (Series 3 should apply as well since it shares a prospectus with Series 2) should be better positioned in the best case scenario that "solving" the capital structure includes Bombardier redeeming all Preferred Shares and assuming no negative scenarios listed above.

Series 2: 5,811,736 = $145,293,400
Series 3: 6,188,264 = $154,706,600
Total: $300,000,000
Retained Dividends
Series 2 ($0.9876 annual) = $5,739,670.47
Series 3 ($0.99575 annual) = $6,161,963.87
Total Annual Savings (Series 2,3,4): $11,901,634.35 (Series 2+3)+$14,687,500 (Series 4)=$26,589,134.35

Naturally, not recommending anybody make any investment/trade decisions on Bombardier Commons and their Preferred Shares based on my thoughts. We will find out more on Thursday February 13, 2020.

Maybe this could be the end for Bombardier preferred shares?

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Checking Out Drone Delivery Canada $FLT.V: "The Condor"

February 19, 2019

I have been following Drone Delivery Canada FLT periodically since they IPO'd, but didn't really notice until about a year ago. Definitely, an interesting speculative play: Drones for delivery.

How neat is that? With any small company that is building their way you need to understand many steps and obstacles can take it down, things like funding, development/technical issues, commercialization, sales, and even to making actual revenues.


Today I attended a portion of the big reveal of FLT's fourth and largest, fastest, and furthest flying drone: The Condor. I had a chance to speak with some FLT management and even touch the three drones they had on location. The Condor looks impressive to say the least. FLT team was very friendly and eager to answer questions, which helped satiate enough of my curiosities. There was a mix of people, most appearing to be professionals and and a handful of general investors. By the time I left it was getting more busy. They did provide an investor package that notes "Strictly Private & Confidential" so I am not certain what can be pulled from that; though reading over the package it is a well presented summation of official releases.

Again, one needs to keep in mind the background of this pioneering company. However, based on what I saw and heard FLT gets the mind thinking; should I buy more than my small speculative position?

In any case; here are some notes that I took at the event. Disappointment first: No, they did NOT fly the drone as a demonstration. :)

Condor (200km @ 120km/hr, 180kg) 1 year out from testing? (This unveiling is saying they have a prototype ready, but they still need to jump through the hoops to get to testing and then later commercial use.)

Sparrow (20-30km @ 36km/hr, 4.4kg) is ready for commercial use later in 2019. Others like Falcon (60km @ 50km/hr, 23kg) and Robin (60-70km @ 50km/hr, 10kg) are respectively ready for testing and for beginning its compliance process.

Moose Cree First Nation (Moosonee to Moose Factory)
- 2km distance is short, but as an example of human transport (not FLT) a helicopter ride for a few people is $1,900 one way. The crossing of water bodies between the two places is difficult especially during the thaw.
- Current transport is subsidised by the Federal government and Feds are looking to reduce costs.
- Hundreds of similar communities that can be served.

How does Amazon compare?
- Door to door is very difficult and regulators do not like as the drone blades could cut dogs, kids, etc.
- If you used FLT's drone blades that spin much faster and the new Condor's heli blades would be catastrophic.
- FLT uses dedicated landing pads.

Technology
- Brains of the system same for all their drones. The module could be installed on other craft beyond their own.
- The module records all inputs such as temperature of fuel etc.
- Communication is via multiple methods such as Satellite, Private RF, Cellular, etc - the system will switch as necessary.
- The cheapest method based on the remote location would be satellite.
- No cameras due to privacy issues and bandwidth and cost issues. (Does this mean in the future? Potentials always with having eyes).
- System has automated responses for emergency/special situations such as losing signal.
- Traffic controllers can also take over the drone and manage 50 drones.
- Flyte Software package for the Traffic Controllers are sort of what you would see with airports.
- Demo is a video playback.
- Multi-monitor touchscreen interface.
- You can see where the drone is and other planes.
- Regulators to approve drone usage require flight data and with drones there is not enough data yet. Compared to the the long history of manned flights.
- Regulators love the system though as they can pull all data at all times. "When was the drone flying near an Air Canada flight?"

Condor
- Can be adapted to the weather conditions, which are very rough up in the area.
- Load configuration can be fitted for auto pallets vs the model needing manual loading.
- Fibreglass construction with some carbon fibre woven in?
Noted: this is a prototype. They were careful with the side-cargo door to not let it swing all the way open.

Add on
- Someone? noted there's some work on replacing falcons with drones for keeping birds away? Paul was interested in connecting with them because of Edmonton airport's willingness to work with drones/technology.
- They are not intending on human flight. Too many certifications/regulations.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

My 10 Year Anniversary of Holding $BNS October 20, 2008

Over the months of 2018 BNS has been getting rocked and hit prices not seen since December 2016. Today I picked up 25 more shares of Bank of Nova Scotia at $70.05. When updating my spreadsheet I noticed October 23 was my 10th year anniversary of holding BNS.

Originally, I purchased 50 shares of BNS on October 9, 2008 at $42.00 and sold October 17, 2008 at $46.01. Then October 23, 2008 re-purchased at $40.50. A month later, averaged down with 45 shares on November 20, 2008 at $38.80.

The TSX on October 23, 2008 was at 9,331.40 fluctuating from there until November 20 when the TSX tumbled to 7,724.80. I looked it up and https://www.thestar.com/business/2008/11/20/tsx_falls_over_750_points.html there was a 765.80 point drop on that day. Today, TSX is at 14,924.08.

My 2008 dividend was an annual $1.92 with a Yield to Cost of 4.823%. Whereas the 2018 dividend has increased 70.83% to $3.28 and through Averaging Up my Yield to Cost of 5.147%. Otherwise, if held at the original price the Yield to Cost would have been 8.24%.

At the height of my holdings February 26, 2016 I had accumulated a total of 1,000 shares, but eventually reduced my position for the purchase of my dwelling (and with that the cessation of my 50K Report.). My current holding has been reduced to 425 shares.


I wish I could remember what I was thinking back in 2008, especially since this holding would have represented a significant amount of my money. Evidently, I held and turned on the DRIP with the next purchase of 1 share on May 4, 2009 at an even lower at $34.74. From there on subsequent purchases were at increasing prices.

This has been a core long term holding and will likely continue to be.

Monday, September 10, 2018

$PIF Polaris Infrastructure Some Thoughts

If anybody gets those Motley Fool ads they are always very curious. You try to research and find what company they are referring to and perhaps it feels like you get close, but you never seem to find it. I don't know if this is true, but it is my perception for one reason or another to do the opposite, or take with a grain of salt, the free MF blog posts, and even at times the advertisements.

Saturday, Sept 8 I received one that kind of piqued my interest that tantalised with the possibility of investing in a TSX listed USD dividend payer operating geothermal energy in Nicaragua. Normally, with these advertisements you have a hell of a time trying to glean what company, but this time... this time it was way too easy. Google "Nicaragua Geothermal TSX" and you will get a few hits for "Polaris Infrastructure". If I am right, then that was way too easy and that makes me get the feeling to "do the opposite".

I have no skin in the game for this one, but phrases like "fat dividend", "escalating fees", and "no competition whatsoever" is enough to at least get you thinking what if I bought in. The advertisement does note the risk of "unfortunate recent turmoil" as a risk. Googling Nicaragua you get the news hits... many dead in protests... Ortega. Wow. Even a lengthy New Yorker article all the way back in April 2018 (It's September 2018) https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/nicaragua-on-the-brink-once-again paints a  dire situation down there. What is truly going on down there is anyone's guess as I am up here far away.

Next looking up the company Polaris Infrastructure, you do see that "fat dividend". On Friday September 7 closing the stock was $10.77 CAD (https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=pif) and yielding the upper of 6% annualized and paid quarterly in USD terms. Pretty sweet.

Seeking Alpha has some informative posts as well. The last unlocked article https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203894-polaris-infrastructure-get-crushed-falling-knife (as of my posting today) is more negative to the political risk.

Reading comments from the post and on forums there is a general feel on the bull side that the World Bank has their back and that the government wouldn't nationalize and asset such as this centrepiece Nicaraguan renewable energy project. While on the Bearish side you pretty much have the whole political risk from change in government to nationalization to crumbling economy.


Of all that I can't really add much more. I spent a few hours tonight attempting to delve deeper into the company in order to try understanding the argument of not wanting to piss off the World Bank by defaulting and such. It all seems messy to me and admittedly, this is definitely not my forte. However, here is what I could gather and interpret:

Ram Power does not directly own the geothermal San Jacinto project. It owns it indirectly via its subsidiary Polaris Energy Nicaragua, S.A. (PENSA).

Polaris Energy Nicaragua, S.A. (PENSA) was able to develop San Jacinto via loans arranged through the International Finance Corporation (IFC), which is a member of the World Bank. https://ifcextapps.ifc.org/ifcext/pressroom/ifcpressroom.nsf/0/3BEDDCFA8FC0F21B852577D500568985?OpenDocument

PENSA pays distributions to the parent company: Ram Power. Hence, the source of revenue for Ram Power is PENSA itself.

PENSA was heavily indebted and was in default on its credit facilities. As a result of this, PENSA was not allowed to pay out distributions. This meant Ram Power was no longer receiving any income.

Polaris Infrastructure, as we know it today, is the result of a recapitalization of the previous company is called "Ram Power".

May 13, 2015 Ram Power through an agreement with Private Equity Firm Goodwood Inc was able to convert $53mm of Ram Power's outstanding 8.5% senior debentures into equity. Plus a private placement of shares to raise $60mm. Essentially, diluting the existing shares by over 25%, which was afterwards consolidated 2000:1. (ouch?)

PENSA credit facilities were also amended as part of the deal using details from April 20, 2015. "revision of the payment schedule (including increasing the term of the Credit Facilities by four years), a reduction in the amount of capital required to be funded into each of the debt service reserve account and major maintenance reserve account on an ongoing basis, a potential reduction in the interest rates of up to 1.5% over three years (provided certain conditions are met), the deletion of certain hourly output covenants and the postponement of certain financial covenants, all of which are expected by Ram Power to result in it being in a position to begin receiving distributions from PENSA in 2016.  The Company also expects that the effect of these changes will result in total debt service in 2016, inclusive of both principal and interest payments, being reduced to approximately US$22 million."

Recap: In 2015 was the subsidiary PENSA was so indebted they were in default and could not pay distributions to the parent company Ram Power. Ram Power as a result went into financial difficulties of its own. The solution was to convert debt into equity and raise additional funds via issuing additional shares. PENSA was able to relax debt requirements allowing it to save on interest payments.


- April 20, 2015: Ram Power, Corp. Announces Private Placement and Recapitalization Transaction https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ram-power-corp-announces-private-placement-and-recapitalization-transaction-517454341.html

- April 30, 2015: Ram Power, Corp. Announces Private Placement and Recapitalization Transaction https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ram-power-corp-announces-private-placement-and-recapitalization-transaction-517454341.html

- May 13, 2015: Polaris Infrastructure Inc. (formerly Ram Power, Corp.) announces closing of recapitalization transaction https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/polaris-infrastructure-inc-formerly-ram-power-corp-announces-closing-of-recapitalization-transaction-517714941.html

There's the "World Bank loan" that people were thinking about. It appears to be held within the subsidiary that owns and operates the actual San Jacinto geothermal asset. The debts appear to be there still albeit with extended terms.

Here's where Polaris appears to be going next. They want to continue expansion of the San Jacinto asset. Plus they have been actively looking into developing another asset called the Casita Project.

This is Casita Project is another of these "World Bank loans" and is much more obvious as it is written right in the latest quarteries/Management's Discussion and Analysis. Except, if you read it, this "World Bank loan" is very preliminary exploratory work and not actual funding of a new geothermal facility. This means if they get the loan and exploration is successful they will still need additional financing to plan, source, and build a new geothermal plant.

The plus side PENSA has been paying down debt with $164.6mm to go as of June 30, 2018. Additions to San Jacinto is also increasing free cash flow, which is beneficial. Then we have the next downside, a) the cost and b) they specifically state further investment for their binary unit (add on generating unit, no drilling/exploration needed) is delayed due to the muddy Nicaragua investment climate.

"The Company has entered discussions with The World Bank Group (the “World Bank”) and the Nicaragua Ministry of Energy and Mines with respect to financing for purposes of completing an initial drilling program at the Casita project. To the extent the Company can complete the contemplated financing, it would enable an exploration drilling campaign at the Casita project without requiring cash flow from our San Jacinto project, and on a non-recourse basis to both the Company and PENSA. Discussions with the World Bank and the Nicaraguan Ministry of Energy and Mines are ongoing, and we will provide further updates as appropriate."

http://polarisinfrastructure.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/PIF-2018-Q2-MDA-2018-08-07-FINAL.pdf 


Does this mean anything to investors? I... really don't know. Or I'm tired because it's almost 2:00am ET and need to get up in 4ish hours to go to work, but the iffy thing is how ownership of the asset is held in the subsidiary PENSA. The subsidiary is saddled with debt and even if it is working on paying it off there are upcoming expenses that do require additional financing. Keeping in mind the second World Bank loan for the Casita Project is stated to be only for exploration. Continued political risks means investors may be leery of funding them. If the current political situation escalates we may be looking at additional risks.

The company is likely cognizant of the having their only egg in one basket and apparently responded to a question that they are looking for acquisitions. Financing again would be the big question.

What ifs about, but perhaps if not outright nationalization there could be other things to worry about like a slowing down economy. Increased costs and outages (they took down a drill site and lost a couple mega watts of production). These things could culminate into issues for PENSA. If the income generator for Polaris Infrastructure: PENSA is in trouble then Polaris will be in trouble. At what point could PENSA be in trouble is unknown.

Back to MF. The easily deduced advertisement was suspicious in my mind. Does the Monday September 10 ramp up in share price coincide with that suspicion? Or was it that Ortega said he would meet Trump (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nicaragua-protests-ortega/nicaraguas-ortega-ready-to-meet-trump-despite-us-threat-idUSKCN1LQ1HK)? If any meet up occurs at the UN and turns out ok the stock should see additional gains. Ortega stating his willingness to talk could be a good sign in itself. Definitely any resolution would pump up PIF.


Polaris Infrastructure Inc.

Exchange: TSX Exchange | Sep 11, 2018, 1:57 AM EDT

PIF
$ 12.07 real time data Change Up
Change:
1.29 (11.97%)
Volume:
106,442
Real-time price

Day Low 11.09
Day High 12.60

"Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega said on Monday he is open to meeting U.S. leader Donald Trump at the United Nations later this month despite expressing concerns that the United States could launch a military intervention on his country.

...

Ortea said he would be prepared to meet Trump if it could be arranged.

“The idea of having a dialogue with a power like the U.S. is necessary,” said Ortega, interviewed in Spanish with English translation. “It could be an opportunity (to meet Trump) at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). I’d like to go.”

The annual gathering of world leaders starts on Sept. 24 at the U.N.’s headquarters in New York."

Sunday, April 15, 2018

$IPL Inter Pipeline looks to plastics for growth - CEO Christian Bayle interview on BNN (April 11, 2018)

Since my August 30, 2017 post about speaking with Inter Pipeline's Investor Relations team ,aside from picking up the Dividend and Premium Dividend, I haven't really been following up on my Long Term Core Holding of Inter Pipeline.

It was good to see the CEO Christian Bayle come out on the Business News Network's Commodities segment on April 11, 2018 to provide viewers and investors with information and support for the massive Heartland Petrochemical Complex. It definitely seems like there has not been enough talk by management on this significant project.

Below is the information that I pulled from the interview: https://www.bnn.ca/commodities/video/inter-pipeline-looks-to-plastics-for-growth~1368195

Where are we in design and construction?



Well advanced with $450MM of procurement and design engineering. Construction started over the last few months with driving pilings. The video above from Inter Pipeline was from January 26, 2018 and can be found on the Inter Pipeline Heartland webpage. Mechanical construction will start in the summer.

There is a quick update on twitter as well and it appears Kiewit Corporation is on the job site as well https://twitter.com/inter_pipeline/status/982365646997471239 (I must have missed this piece: To enhance cost control, Inter Pipeline said it will award a lump-sum unit rate contract to Kiewit Energy Canada Corp.’s Kiewit Construction Services ULC of Calgary to deliver construction of the project.)

Propane to Plastics process:
Strategic for Inter Pipeline and Alberta. Alberta's structural defect is of having access to the markets. The disadvantage for pricing as the commodity markets are in the US.

Take Propane, which is selling at a low price in Alberta, and turn it into to high value product Polypropylene. It is a plastic pellet that is easy to transport in hopper (via train) and take it to market hubs.

There is a big value gap between Polypropylene and Propane, which they intend to turn into fee based cash flow for shareholders. Upside is contracted out to counter parties including Propane Producers and Polypropylene Consumers.

Propane Feed Stock and Polypropylene price is Commodity Risk.

Goal is to build integrated Propane Dehydrogenation Plant and Polypropylene Facility and contract it uniquely, to the world. Sign up Counter Parties under Take or Pay arrangements, of which they have a few now, and will have more later over the years. Inter Pipeline will sell capacity to producers and get a Return on Capital for shareholders that is both stable and predictable. Volatility on commodity prices would be borne by Counter Parties. Inter Pipeline will get substantial upside and Propane Producers won't need to invest their own capital to do so.

Who gets the Revenue?:
Revenue of plastic pellets will be taken by the Propane Producer. Inter Pipeline will market the Polypropylene on the Propane Producer's behalf and then the Producers will get the money remaining after Inter Pipeline deducts Capital Fees and Operating Fees.

This is a diversification play for Propane Producers in Alberta of which they can't participate in now.

Polypropylene has a great market and is in high demand. It is a flexible product used in a variety of products: automotive parts, carpets, textiles, clothing, and packaging materials. The Polypropylene market is growing 2-3% globally, which doesn't sound like a lot, but this means a world scale plant needs to be built every 2 years in North America. Inter Pipeline intends on being one of those.

Plastic environmental issues:
Polypropylene is fully recyclable and it is an environmentally friendly plastic. Plastics are needed and used every day. It is a good diversification play for Inter Pipeline and good for the Alberta economy.

Note that this $3.5BN project will employ Thousands during construction and then after construction Hundreds of full time employment will be provided for decades.

Process and engineering tricky?:
It is a new technology for Inter Pipeline and Alberta, but it is a proven technology that has been in use and improved upon for decades (Honeywell UOP LLC: C3 Oleflex technology for production of propylene at the Propane Dehydrogenation Plant. W.R. Grace & Co.: Unipol process technology for PolyPropylene Facility). High quality global engineering firms (Detailed engineering for PDH Facility by Fluor Corporation and Front End Engineering for the Integrated Polypropylene Plant by Linde Engineering) used to design.

Thoughts on Trans Mountain:
Not much to add, clearly a national interest of Canada, clearly for Alberta, and even British Columbia. The law should prevail here and the right thing will be done.

"Traditional" businesses of Inter Pipeline of  transport and storing fuels:
Major Oil Sand Transport company taking product from Fort. McMurray and Northen Alberta to market hubs. Plus a sizeable conventional oil gathering business.

Inter Pipeline operates intra-Alberta and the Province of Saskatchewan, so they do not face the same challenges as export pipelines are facing in Canada. Business can get done within provinces, but it is challenging and political to build anything with export capacity.

Dividend?:
Strong with a track record of growing Year over Year off the back of accretive acquisitions and organic growth projects in Oil Sands and Conventional Oil.

Polypropylene project to grow the dividend?
One reason why the Polypropylene project is attractive is its scale and forecasted Cash Flow of $450 to $500MM earnings before interest, taxes and amortization (EBITA) towards the end of 2021. Construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2021. The Polypropylene project will support dividend growth.


Sunday, December 24, 2017

Canada Securities Regulators No Longer Require Insider Trade Summary Reports

Well, this was not on the horizon of many investors' and quite unexpected. Effective March 1, 2018 TMXMoney will no longer provide Insider Trade Summaries.

Back in September 8, 2006, before I truly started investing, this Insider Trade Summary Report was enacted for end-of-day information. This trade information would only show if it was on an official exchange and not if, for example, the transaction was via Private Placement or an Alternate Exchange. The TMX site allowed you to input a symbol to find out whether a trade was completed or through a snapshot of the Top 10 Buys or Sells by Volume or Value.

On the Retail level (ie. regular investors like myself) we might not have looked at this information. If we did, the end-of-day TMX Insider Trade Summary was likely the fastest method. Perhaps if we wanted to dig deeper there is SEDI (www.sedi.ca, implemented June 9, 2003 - http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/en/19854.htm), but that is not as convenient for a quick snapshot.

Why would we Retail investors use it? In itself it really doesn't tell us much aside that someone within the company may be purchasing or selling a large amount of stock. We might be able to infer a level of confidence by Insiders in their company. The usefulness is also reduced because it is for end-of-day and does not provide historical or specific Insider seller information.

When you go to the TMX Insider Trade Summary site (https://app.tmxmoney.com/research/insidertradesummaries?locale=EN) a message shows:


Clicking the "View Notice" link brings you to the December 1, 2017 release (https://www.tmxmoney.com/en/pdf/insider_trade_notice.pdf) states:

"December 1 2017

TSX, TSXV and ALPHA would like to announce that the securities regulators have approved our request to revoke orders imposed on TSX, TSXV and ALPHA that require the public dissemination of insider trading marker summary reports (“Insider Trade Marker Report”) on an end of day basis (“Regulatory Orders”).

TSX, TSXV and ALPHA will cease publication of the Insider Trade Marker Report & Insider Trader Marker Corrections files effective Mar 1, 2018 in order to respect the 90-day notification period applicable to this data product.

The decision to seek revocation of the Regulatory Orders was the result of a public comment process
spearheaded by TSX, TSXV and ALPHA in response to client feedback. TSX, TSXV and ALPHA published the Request for Comments [https://www.tsx.com/trading/toronto-stock-exchange/trading-rules-and-regulations/other-requests-for-comments] to broadly consult on the relevance and usefulness of the Insider Trade Marker Report. This resulted in seven comment letters that were substantively aligned in the view that these reports are detrimental to large security holders because the published information can be used to disadvantage investors when acquiring or disposing of a large position.

TSX, TSXV and ALPHA thank all participants for their participation in this process. The discontinuation of the Insider Trade Marker Report was a joint industry effort and TSX, TSXV and ALPHA are proud to have helped facilitate this.

For more information, please contact the datasales@tmx.com"

The article links to this page "Other Requests for Comments" (https://www.tsx.com/trading/toronto-stock-exchange/trading-rules-and-regulations/other-requests-for-comments), which provides a summary of the process and the updates relating to the discontinuation of the Insider Trading Summary Report.

Reading the material it seems the 8 commenters provided feedback essentially stating the Summary Report no longer supports the initial purpose of levelling the playing field; as short term traders can utilize the information for short term gains. They claim is large security holders have been materially impacted as they cannot sell or buy large positions without detection by these short term traders thereby creating a disincentive for them. In fact they say it may push them to move trades to the US Markets.

You can read more of their reasoning here on the "Summary of Comments": https://www.tsx.com/resource/en/1519

Perhaps for large institutional investors this Insider Trading Summary Report was damaging, but for Retail it was our most up to date and quickest view of what was happening to our personal holdings. Seems to be quite unfortunate that this piece of information is now missing.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

About That Polypropylene Plant: A Call With $IPL Inter Pipeline Ltd.

Inter Pipeline $IPL is one of the longest held companies in my portfolio; during its Income Trust days of August 2009. Over the years the growing dividend has provided me with an excellent cash flow. One major development in late 2016 was the purchase of Williams Canada and their Natural Gas Liquids business. This acquisition also provided plans for a potential Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) facility and a Polypropylene (PP) facility. The $3BN capital cost and development of a new line of business has been a big concern of mine and after IPL's last quarter call many questions came to mind (Read: Inter Pipeline's (IPPLF) CEO Christian Bayle on Q2 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript).

Questions:

- The need to "educate" others on the fee structure is concerning.
- Project appears to be much more likely to occur with nearly $455MM already spent on the project with a large equipment piece already ordered.
- 11 of 16 analysts had questions regarding the new projects in planning.
- What is up with all this interest in Polypropylene? Competing facilities planned by Pembina Pipeline and Tidewater Midstream and infrastructure.
- Is there a possibility of a Joint Venture to spread out the risk?

A few days ago I finally had an opportunity to speak with Inter Pipeline's investor relations. Here are notes from the conversation, which was not recorded and notes were hastily scribbled. I tried cleaning it up a bit, but to summarize I think the basic take away is:

The purpose of adding Polypropylene is to take Propane, a landlocked commodity that is currently oversupplied in Alberta, and hence, low priced; and converting it into a higher priced product that can be sold globally.
While I didn't drill down deeply into details the conversation gave me some more confidence with IPL's proposed plans.

Inter Pipeline has four business segments:
1) Oil transport
2) Natural Gas Liquids
3+4) Conventional and bulk liquid storage.


1) Oil Transport is the most stable segment.
- Most revenues: 55% EBITDA.
- Cost of service, no commodity risk.
- Upstream production, guarantees capacity.
- Typically 25 year contracts.
- $600mm/year stable.
- Strategy (crown jewel) with $3BN invested recently is Cold lake and Polaris. It was completed in 2015 with approvals for excess capacity.
- It is a play on oil sands, if the commodity price increases they can expand with reduced regulatory needs.
- Conventional oil in Saskatchewan is fee based.
- When Oil was at $20, throughput was 200k, now with oil higher they are at 208k.

3+4) Bulk storage, Europe. Counter cyclical segment. Storage can be used by clients for contango.
- 98/99% capacity usage.
- Little is actually used for contango storage.
- 15% remaining is operational flow of liquids.
- Liquids stored include things like vodka and vegetable oil.
- Growth through acquisitions.
- Most deal flow for this segment is in Europe.

2) Natural Gas Liquids
- 2004 straddle business bought from Williams.
- 2015 Off Gas business bought from Williams.
- Williams already invested $2.5BN. Unique to Alberta.
- Few upgraders available, which turn Bitumen into better products.
- Byproduct Off Gas is used as feed stock for other processes.
- Byproduct is liquids rich.
- Sent to extraction facility instead of burning.
- Valuable gases/liquids shipped: Ethelyne to Nova Chemicals.
- Oliphineics are not abundant and high demand. "Rare" and not natural.
- Examples: Polypropylene and Oil Sand condensates.
- Propane price is weak.

- $1.35bn acquisition of Williams signalled to the market a 95% commodity exposure.
- Same idea as 2004 when NGL extraction plants were acquired from Williams.
- Natural Gas Liquids to fund other line of business to reduce commodity exposure.
- Biggest growth will be Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH) / Polypropylene (PP) (PDH/PP).
- Alberta has an oversupply of propane by 125k. Projected oversupply is out to 2026.
- Solution is to take excess propane and convert it to high value product: "plastic pellets".
- By 2021 when facilities are constructed this will move the value chain downstream.
- Polypropylene is currently produced in the Gulf Coast (USA).
- Propane is land locked.
- Plastic pellets Polypropylene has less environmental concerns and it is easier to move plastic vs propane.
- Polypropylene opens a global market. It is the second largest polymer used worldwide.
- Examples: Carpets, bumpers, water bottles... Manufacturing industry.
- In the morning drinking his Starbucks he looked at his coffee cup lid and it is made of polypropylene.
- Polypropylene is more attractive than propane.
- The Williams management and staff have been retained from the acquisition, giving IPL their expertise.
- Forecast Global current demand of 66mm tonnes to 2021 of 83mm tonnes.
- North American current 8.1mm tonnes with target 2021 of 9.3mm tonnes.
- Midwest Chicago is the target market, but they can get it deeper: Gulf, Asia, etc
- Polypropylene is better than transporting propane at a Terminal.
- The Hold Up/what's taking time is: Commercial Negotiation.
- Try to derisk the project with contracts.


- What does it mean to "educate"? There are two types of clients:
1) Polypropylene consumer that will either Sell or use it for manufacturing.
2) Alberta propane producers are getting hit from low prices, facilities will offer them access.

- Education of the consumer "carpet maker" who normally expects to buy at spot and unhedged. IPL will be able to offer them long term contracts and the economics is good. The hang up is the 4 year construction period and then signing up for a 5-10 year contract.
- *All commercial factors, the Term is the sticking point. Value is proven by moving up the value chain.
- Making a normal agreement still takes a long time.
- Few periods where it has been a Win/Win. Hard to lock in a 5 year contract after 4 years.
- It is compelling for them to lock in and for IPL to be able to go forward. Mutually beneficial.
- Education is figuring out the framework.

- Investors buy IPL for stability. Acquisitions have been for stability.
- Sufficient take or pay contract.
- Natural Gas Liquid value chain. We are doing as before.
- * 525k tonnes of Polypropylene capacity.
- They will create Polypropylene contracts with some buffer (keep some for themselves to sell) that keeps some commodity exposure.
- The buffer allows them to stay as an active participant in market. Engaged in knowing the commodity market. aka Keeping a finger on the pulse.
- Canada is not a big user, but Canada still imports 500k tonnes.
- Target market for Polypropylene is mostly USA and probably some Canada.
- Pembina Pipelines (PPL) will be building same size +500k, but IPL doesn't think it will over saturate the market. "We would build a second facility if PPL didn't.|"
- 15% growth in north America. 25% growth globally.
- Polypropylene production is unique to Canada, but the technology and building have been done before in the Gulf.
- IPL not worried about less propane available with AltaGas's (ALA) Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal.
- IPL has already spent more than PPL and has bid for components for construction. Getting a fixed quote shows how far we are in the planning.
- Literally want the right contracts for the facility.

- * Comparing with Canexus is not relevant as they are a different sized company with different access to capital, financing, and credit rates.

- IPL's share weakness and lack of transparency is due to the Final Investment Decision (FID).
- IPL's Off Gas business is still being digested and Analysts are still trying to figure out this segment. - Example: $40mm EBITDA in Q1 with IPL vs. $40mm in one year with Williams.
- FID completion will be a catalyst for IPL shares.
- Chris (CEO?) wouldn't do PDH/PP unless it was "good" for shareholders. IPL is investor focused.
- Important to keep in mind the dividend is not underpinned by Commodity Exposure.

- Partnering is not off the table, but it would be a good access to Capital.
- However a Joint Venture would be about more than money. IPL would want them to bring expertise and contracts.
- Example of IPL financial strength, 2013-2015, $3bn deal was done solo and this was when IPL was smaller. Now IPL is bigger and should be able to do it solo.
- Joint Ventures means more complex contracts for supply and product sales.
- IPL has a good track record, so why give up returns. We have experts.


- Financing would be targeting 50/50 debt and equity.
- Target Debt to Capitalization is 50-55%.
- Corridor Oil Sands system has $1.5/1.6 BN of Non-Recourse debt that is serviced by shippers.
- Q2 YTD 55% Debt to Total Capitalization. Debt Covenant allows for 65%.
- Organic project spending over number of months would be funded via the bank line, $1.5bn facility.
- Lumpy spending on the project (not all payments are upfront) means they can draw down their Credit Line then go to Debt market for 7 and 10 Year Issues to repay and then reuse the Credit Line.
- Equity not preferred as share price is down. "not keen on it".
- Currently at the top range of Debt to Capitalization.
- DRIP gives $25mm/month, $300mm/year. (Note: DRIP discount was removed August 2015; Williams acquisition was August 2016; Premium Dividend reinstated Oct 2016)
- DRIP would provide the company with $1.2bn over 4 years.
- Williams and Cold Lake acquisitions pushed Debt to Capitalization over 57%.
- DRIP brought the Debt to Capitalization back down. DRIP also provides flexibility as it is better than doing a bought deal and paying underwriter, fees, etc.

- Macro events always an issue.
- "Not everywhere on market that you can get a 7% yield. Attractive on the market."


Note: IPL has hit a 52 week low of $22.14 (Aug 30, 2017), much lower from the 52 Week High of $30.07. I have been averaging down my position and added more yesterday (Aug 30, 2017) based on the price and to an extent from the conversation with Inter Pipeline. The intention is to continue holding a core position and the excess will be sold if and when the price recovers.